October 15, 2018

IMF: Expect Slower Growth In 2019


  • The International Monetary Fund last week announced that it has downgraded its expectations for economic growth around the world. The IMF now expects the world economy to expand 3.7 percent in year, down from its previous 3.9 percent prediction. Expectations for the world’s two largest economies were included in the bleaker report. The IMF says U.S. growth rates will fall from 2.9 percent this year to 2.5 percent in 2019. At 6.6 percent for 2018, the IMF’s expectation for Chinese growth did not change, but the IMF did predict growth in China would slow in 2019, falling to 6.2 percent. If that prediction comes true, it would be China’s slowest growth rate since 1990.
  • The Associated Press reported last week that “China’s trade surplus with the United States widened to a record $34.1 billion in September as exports to the American market rose by 13 percent over a year earlier despite a worsening tariff war.” Imports from the United States into China rose only nine percent from September 2017 to September 2018. Overall, exports from China to other countries increased 14.5 percent year-over-year while imports rose 14.3 percent.
  • In Germany, the Federal Statistical Office reported exports from the country were down 0.1 percent from July 2018 to August 2018, but up 2.2 percent from August 2017 to August 2018. Imports fell 2.7 percent for the month.
  • In other international economic news: auto sales in China fell 12 percent from September 2017 to September 2018.