Quarterly Metals Industry End Market ForecastsView Reports
Do you know where your customers' markets are going?
Momentum Monitors can be used to predict the turning points in demand for the vertical markets of most interest to MSCI members. Each Momentum Monitor is designed to predict turning points in the target end market data series with as few false signals as possible, and with the highest possible correlation. Each Momentum Monitor is two pages long and consists of three components – a monthly index, a breakdown of various sectors’ contributions to the monthly index, and a sector matrix that tracks the economic cycle.
Published quarterly, and aimed at busy executives, Keybridge Momentum Monitors are unique leading indicators designed to predict shifts in end market momentum with an approximate 2-quarter lead time.
Companies can use our Momentum Monitors to:
- Anticipate shifts in demand for their end-user markets
- Cross-check against the company’s own forecasts and customers’ reports
- Know what data trends are driving changes in end-user industries
Fabricated Metal Products
Fabricated metal products are one of the largest end markets for metals service centers. This is a market for which MSCI members cite the greatest lack of visibility and need for forecasting tools.
This market represents a number of sub-markets such as forging and stamping products, cutlery and hand tools, architectural and structural metals, hardware, machine shops, turned products, nuts, screws and bolts, coating and engraving products and ball and roller bearings, among others.
Mining, Oil & Gas Machinery
A large market for many metals companies, this industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in wholesaling new and used mining, oil and gas well equipment, petroleum refinery machinery, equipment, supplies and parts.
Automobile & Light Truck
The Automobile and light truck industry is comprised of the production of automobiles, consumer-oriented light trucks, minivans, sports utility vehicles, motorcycles, snowmobiles and all-terrain vehicles. This excludes heavy trucks, classified in construction & agricultural machinery, and bicycles and RVs which are classified in leisure products.
Another important market for metals companies, the agricultural machinery industry produces and maintains tractors, agricultural machinery, and agricultural implements. There are many types of agricultural equipment, from power tools to tractors and the countless kinds of farm implements that they tow or operate.
Construction equipment refers to heavy-duty vehicles, specially designed for executing construction tasks, most frequently ones involving earthwork operations. They are also known as heavy machines, heavy trucks, construction equipment, engineering equipment, heavy vehicles, or heavy hydraulics.
A key market for aluminum, this industry is primarily engaged in the manufacturing or the assembling of complete non-defense related aircraft, developing and making aircraft prototypes, aircraft conversion, and complete aircraft overhaul and rebuilding (i.e., periodic restoration of aircraft to original design specifications.)
Non-residential construction consists of buildings, other than dwellings, including fixtures, facilities, and equipment that are integral parts of the structures and costs of site clearance and preparation. Examples include warehouse and industrial buildings, commercial buildings, buildings for public entertainment, hotels, restaurants, educational buildings, hospitals and health buildings and government buildings. Historic monuments identified primarily as non-residential buildings are also included.
Establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing machinery, equipment, and components for general industrial use, and for which no special classification is provided. Machine shops primarily engaged in producing machine and equipment parts, usually on a job or order basis, such as chemical industry equipment, hydraulics, lift trucks, machine tools, generators, presses, industrial robots, heaters, filters, sifters, and pumps.
Residential Construction Momentum Monitor
This industry comprises establishments primarily responsible for the construction or remodeling and renovation of single-family and multifamily residential buildings. Included in this industry are residential housing general contractors (i.e., new construction, remodeling, or renovating existing residential structures), for-sale builders and remodelers of residential structures, residential project construction management firms, and residential design-build firms.
Electrical Equipment Manufacturing Momentum Monitor
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in manufacturing power, distribution, and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators, and motor generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; relays; and industrial controls.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the methodology behind Momentum Monitors?
MSCI-Keybridge Momentum Monitors are meant to provide end market growth estimates for busy metals industry executives. The MMs are designed to predict rates of change in end market activity, not to produce point estimate forecasts. We believe that forecasting rates of change, being able to predict major swings in economic activity, is a more business-friendly, useful way to do a forecast. We’re providing reliable data that allows metals company executives to manage better and improve company performance when trying to allocate resources and meet the demands of their customers.
Each Momentum Monitor consists of a series of independent variables whose rates of change are related in some way to the rates of change in the targeted end market time series. The independent variables combine to model the behavior (up, down or neutral) in the end market data series. Thousands upon thousands of Monte Carlo simulations are run to identify the most appropriate and significant independent variables for each forecast model. End market forecast estimates are then tested for predictive power using historical performance and statistical testing such as correlation, turning point false signals and lead times. The intent is to produce end market forecasts that are reliable and that do not miss turns in end market trends.
These models are then used to produce each of the quarterly Momentum Monitors. The process of validating each model is again performed on an annual basis to keep the models as predictive and reliable as possible.
Check out this “how to” document to learn how to read and apply momentum monitors.
See this link for a sample momentum monitor.