What Can MSCI Members Expect From The New White House In Terms Of Policy?

Donald Trump will take the oath of office in a little less than ten weeks. What can MSCI members and the rest of the American people expect from the White House in terms of policy? Let’s take a look:

• International Trade. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is off the table for now, but the Trump administration could renegotiate it. A renegotiation presents a good chance to get strong language in it to address currency manipulation. Former Nucor executive Dan DiMicco is leading the transition for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. This news is very good for the industrial metals industry, not just on TPP, but on trade enforcement and other matters. Donald Trump also promised to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In the wake of his win, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau indicated he would be willing to work with the new president on this issue. According to Politico’s “Morning Trade,” the Trump administration will decide in its first three to six months what to do about TPP and NAFTA>
• Tax Reform. It is expected that the Trump administration will move very quickly on tax reform and that it will use a hybrid of the House GOP’s blueprint and Trump’s own plan as a foundation for comprehensive reform. There are some very good things in the House GOP’s blueprint, including the fact that is appears to leave LIFO intact, but MSCI will need to work with its partners at the LIFO Coalition to mount a strong campaign to keep LIFO since Republicans previously have considered LIFO repeal as a ‘pay for’ for other tax reforms. MSCI also will have to closely monitor how pass-through income is calculated.
• Health Care. President-elect Trump and Republican leaders in Congress have pledged to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Full repeal, however, is unlikely since the president-elect and GOP leadership agree with certain ACA provisions like the mandates to cover pre-existing conditions and coverage for older children.
• Infrastructure. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton campaigned on increased investment in infrastructure so there is a very good opportunity for the new president to come out of the gate in a bipartisan way if he concentrates on this issue. President-elect Trump and the Republican Congress will rely much more heavily, though, on proposals that will spur private investments rather than an outline like President Barack Obama’s 2009 stimulus. Republicans will also concentrate on reforming government permitting as a part of an infrastructure plan. MSCI has concentrated heavily on this issue as part of the Energy Equipment and Infrastructure Alliance.
• Regulatory Reform. President-elect Trump will spend significant time undoing President Obama’s executive orders and actions, and he will start with his immigration measures. The Republican Congress also is expected to take quick action to repeal the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform bill, which included the conflict minerals provision opposed by MSCI. The new president is also likely to walk back, if not completely abandon, the Environmental Protection Agency’s most costly new regulations, including the Clean Power Plan and Waters of the United States rule. Republicans in Congress will pass legislation that will strengthen the legislative branch’s oversight of the rulemaking process and will also pass legislation to require economic impact analyses of the most costly rules.
• Labor And Employment Policy. According to The National Law Review, President-elect Trump’s Department of Labor will revisit the Obama administration overtime rule (though, as noted by Politico’s “Morning Shift,” undoing the overtime rule will be difficult and unpopular) and its “persuader” rule. The National Labor Relations Board under the Trump administration will “revisit several pro-labor NLRB rules promulgated and decisions issued during the past few years.” Those rulings include: Broadening the “test” for finding two unrelated employers to be “joint employers”; Allowing inclusion of temporary workers in bargaining units with an employer’s regular workers; Expanding the National Labor Relations Act’s coverage of protected concerted activity; Making it difficult for an employer to alter a bargaining units requested by a union; Permitting employees to picket and protest on employer property; and dealing with the conduct of representation elections (the “ambush elections” rule). MSCI will work with its partners at the Coalition for a Democratic Workplace as these rules are reconsidered.