January 28, 2019

IMF Downgrades Global Growth Expectations


  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded global growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points from its October estimate. The IMF now expects the world economy to grow 2.6 percent in 2018 and 3.6 percent in 2019. The revision is partly due to “the negative effects of tariff increases enacted in the United States and China earlier in the year.’’ The IMF left unchanged its forecast for 2.5 percent U.S. growth this year and maintained the projection for China at 6.2 percent expansion this year and next. It reduced its 2019 estimates for the euro-area from 1.9 percent to 1.9 percent.
  • The World Steel Association announced last week that global crude steel output increased 4.6 percent in 2018 from the year before. Output rose 6.6 percent in China and 6.2 percent in the United States, which is the world’s fourth-largest crude producer. India is now the world’s second largest producer of crude steel, surpassing Japan. Production in India advanced by 4.9 percent in 2018. Production fell in the European Union by 0.3 percent.
  • According to American Metal Market (subscription required), global primary aluminum output production totaled 55 million tons in December 2018, an increase of 1.8 percent from a year earlier. Global production for 2018 was 1.4 percent higher than in 2017. Chinese production increased 1.6 percent between December 2018 and December 2018
  • AMM also reported crude steel output in China in early January was up three percent from late December.