May 27, 2019

OECD Predicts Global Growth To Slow Due To Trade Tensions


  • In its latest round of economic predictions for the world economy, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned that “trade tensions have disrupted growth” and “with uncertainty high and confidence low, investment has suffered, and the manufacturing sector has taken a hit.” The OECD said the anxiety about trade is taking such toll that global growth is projected to slow to only 3.2 percent this year before edging up to 3.4 percent in 2020, which is “well below the growth rates seen over the past three decades.”
  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s National Activity Index declined to -0.45 in April from +0.05 in March, indicating below average economic growth for the month. The three-month moving average also declined, to -0.22 in April from -0.16 in March.
  • Wholesale sales in Canada increased 1.4 percent to $64.1 billion in March. For the first quarter of 2019, wholesale sales rose 0.7 percent. The machinery, equipment and supplies subsector rose 2.9 percent. Sales also rose in construction, forestry, mining, industrial machinery and computer and communications equipment and supplies.
  • TheFederal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s manufacturing index fell slightly, to +4 in May from +5 in April and down from +10 in March. The bank said growth “continued to grow modestly at most durable and nondurable production plants, with stronger growth for food, plastics, and metals products.” Click here to read the full report.
  • According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of individuals who filed for federal unemployment benefits fell to 211,000 for the week that ended May 18, down from 212,000 the week before. The four-week moving average of first-time claims also declined. The number of individuals who continued to receive benefits rose, however, to 1.676 million for the week that ended May 11 from 1.688 million the week before. The four-week moving average of continuing claims also rose.
  • In other economic news: new home sales the United States fell 6.9 percent between March 2019 and April 2019, but increased seven percent between April 2018 and April 2019; total existing-home sales in the United States fell 0.4 percent from March 2019 to April 2019 and 4.4 percent from April 2018 to April 2019.