Trump Administration Investigating Potential Economic Impact Of Revoking PNTR With China

The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) recently launched an investigation into the potential economic effects of revoking Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China. The investigation is the result of legislative language approved by members of Congress. The study, which has already begun, will evaluate how withdrawing PNTR treatment for Chinese imports could affect U.S. industries, employment, supply chains, and consumer prices.

As MSCI members are well aware, China has held PNTR status since 2000, which means goods from the country receive the same most-favored-nation tariff rates applied to imports from other World Trade Organization (WTO) members. If the U.S. government were to revoke PNTR status, Chinese products would instead be subject to higher tariff rates.

The USITC will analyze how such tariff increases could reshape trade flows, domestic production, and sourcing decisions. The investigation will assess multiple scenarios, including full revocation of PNTR for all Chinese imports and phased approaches that gradually raise tariffs on certain products over several years, particularly those linked to national security concerns.

The public has until April 13, 2026 to comment on the matter.

The ITC is expected to deliver its report by August 21, 2026.