July 27, 2020

U.S. Growth Picks Up, But Economy Still Likely In A Recession


  • The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the United States increased two percent in June to 102.0, following a 3.2 percent increase in May and a 6.3 percent decrease in April. Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board, said, “The June increase in the LEI reflects improvements brought about by the incremental reopening of the economy, with labor market conditions and stock prices in particular contributing positively. However, broader financial conditions and the consumers’ outlook on business conditions still point to a weak economic outlook. Together with a resurgence of new COVID-19 cases across much of the nation, the LEI suggests that the US economy will remain in recession territory in the near term.” The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s National Activity Index, meanwhile, increased to +4.11 in June from +3.50 in May, which indicates economic growth picked up in June.
  • New state unemployment claims increased for the first time in almost four months during the week that ended July 18, rising to more than 1.4 million new applications for state benefits from around 1.3 million the prior two weeks.
  • In other economic news: Canada’s consumer price index increased by 0.7 percent between June 2019 and June 2020; retail sales in Canada rose by 18.7 percent from May 2019 to May 2020; and new homes sales in the United States increased 13.8 percent between May 2020 and June 2020 and 6.9 percent year-over-year.