Mixed Manufacturing Data From The United States And Canada

Connecting the Dots monitors all major economic announcements in the United States and Canada, but the Metals Service Center Institute also offers industrial metals industry-specific data products that provide much deeper analysis and insight. Visit MSCI’s website and click on industry data to learn more about our Metals Activity Report (MAR), Momentum Monitors, and Macroeconomic Current.

Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• MSCI’s June 2025 MAR showed ongoing softness in metals shipments across North American service centers. In the United States, steel shipments fell five percent and aluminum shipments fell 4.2 percent compared to June 2024. Canada also experienced notable declines, with steel shipments down 7.4 percent and aluminum down 10.6 percent. These results mark another consecutive month of subdued demand and persistent inventory pressures throughout the supply chain.
• U.S. Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in June and 1.1 percent in the second quarter. In June, manufacturing output ticked up 0.1 percent while the index for mining decreased 0.3 percent. The index for utilities rose 2.8 percent and capacity utilization moved up to 77.6 percent, a rate that is two percentage points below its long-run average.
• In Canada, total manufacturing sales fell 0.9 percent to $68.7 billion in from April 2025 to May 2025 and were at their lowest level since January 2022. The decline was primarily due to an 8.4 percent drop in sales of petroleum and coal products and a 2.7 percent decline in machinery sales. The drops were partially offset by a 6.9 percent increase in production of aerospace products and parts. From May 2024 to May 2025, total manufacturing sales were down 4.1 percent.
• In the United States, manufacturing sales fell 0.4 percent from April 2025 to May 2025, but were up 3.1 percent between May 2024 and May 2025. Inventories were largely unchanged month-over-month, but increased 1.7 percent from May 2024. The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of May was 1.39. The May 2024 ratio was 1.41.
• Statistics Canada found wholesale sales excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons improved 0.1 percent from April to May. Sales rose in five of the seven subsectors. The largest gain was a 3.5 percent increase from the personal and household goods subsector followed by a 2.2 percent jump from the motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories subsector. Wholesale sales were up 1.8 percent year-over-year.
• U.S. wholesales sales fell 0.3 percent from April to May, but were up 4.8 percent year-over-year. Inventories also were down 0.3 percent for the month, but up 1.4 percent from May 2024 to May 2025. The May inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.30, down from 1.34 the year prior.
• Regional manufacturing readings released in the last couple of weeks showed a somewhat more positive picture. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s manufacturing index rose 22 points to +5.5, its first positive reading since February 2025. New orders edged higher and shipments increased while inventories grew significantly. Employment expanded for a second consecutive month, and the average workweek also increased. The bank also said capital spending plans grew and firms remained fairly optimistic about the future. Read the full report. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, manufacturing activity in its region expanded in July. The survey’s indicator for general activity returned to positive territory, and the indexes for new orders and shipments both increased this month. All three indexes recorded their highest readings since February. Read the full report. The outlier was the monthly report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Its composite manufacturing index for the Central Atlantic region fell from -8 in June to -20 in July as all three of its component indexes declined. Shipments decreased to -18 from -5, new orders dropped to -25 from -12, and employment fell to -16 from -6. Read the full report. Finally, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s manufacturing index rose to +1 in July from -2 in June. The increase was driven by nondurable manufacturing, and month-over-month indexes were mixed. The volume of shipments and new orders both increased modestly, for example, but production fell from 5 to -3. Read the full report.
• The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index fell 0.3 percent in June to 98.8, indicating a significant slowdown in the U.S. economy for the second half of the year. Weak consumer expectations, manufacturing orders, and rising unemployment claims drove the decline. The index has fallen 2.8 percent in the half of 2025.
• The number of new homes under construction in the United States increased 4.6 percent between May 2025 and June 2025, but fell 0.5 percent from June 2024 to June 2025. Existing home sales in the United States fell 2.7 percent between May and June, meanwhile.
• The Canadian economy added 83,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent from 6.8 percent in May. There were job gains in wholesale and retail trade, along with the healthcare and social assistance sectors. The agriculture industry shed jobs and employment remained relatively stable in all other industries. Total hours worked increased 0.5 percent from May to June and 1.6 percent year-over-year. Read the full report at this link.
• The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits for the first time ever was 217,000 during the week that ended July 19. That number was down by 4,000 from the week before. Averaged over the past four weeks, the number of first-time claims was 224,500, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week. In all, nearly 1.955 million people claimed federal unemployment benefits during the week that ended July 12. That figure was up by 4,000 from the week before.
• In other economic news: the Canadian consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.1 percent from May 2025 to June 2025 and 1.9 percent from June 2024 to July 2025; the S. CPI increased 0.3 percent from May to June and 2.7 percent year-over-year; the U.S. Producer Price Index was flat between July and July, but rose 2.3 percent year-over-year; U.S. import prices were up 0.1 percent in June while export prices increased 0.5 percent; and Canadian retail sales fell 1.1 percent from April 2025 to May 2025.