Recent Readings Show U.S​. Economy Growing, Canadian Contracting

Connecting the Dots monitors all major economic announcements in the United States and Canada, but the Metals Service Center Institute also offers industrial metals industry-specific data products that provide much deeper analysis and insight. Visit MSCI’s website and click on industry data to learn more about our Metals Activity Report (MAR), Momentum Monitors, and Macroeconomic Current.

Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• The U.S. economy grew at an annualized three percent rate in the second quarter, a significant improvement over the 0.5 percent decline seen in the first quarter. The growth, which exceeded expectations, was driven by a rebound in the trade balance and stronger consumer spending. Read the full report at this link.
• The Canadian economy contracted 0.1 percent from April 2025 to May 2025 due to the fact that growth in goods-producing industries declined and output in services-producing industries was essentially unchanged. The contraction in the goods-producing sector was largely due to a downturn in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector. (The manufacturing sector expanded in May.)
• The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 48.0 percent in July from 49.0 in June. The reading for new orders contracted for the sixth month in a row while the gauge for production rose 1.1 percentage points. The reading for backlog of orders increased, meanwhile, but employment declined. Read the full report at this link.
• The S&P Global manufacturing PMI for Canada increased to 46.1 in July from 45.6 in June, but remained in contractionary territory for the sixth month in a row. The PMI showed slower declines in both output and new orders, but inventories fell at rates not seen since 2020.
• Texas factory activity picked up in July, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The bank’s production index improved 20 points to 21.3, its highest reading in more than three years, while the new orders index remained negative, but rose to -3.6 from -7.3. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes also pushed into positive territory, coming in at 17.3 and 2.7, respectively. Perceptions of broader business conditions stabilized and outlooks also improved.
• U.S. construction spending fell 0.4 percent between May 2025 and June 2025 and 2.2 percent between June 2024 and June. 2025. Read the full report at this link.
• U.S. employers added 73,000 jobs in July while the nation’s jobless rate rose from 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent. Additionally, job gains for May and June were drastically revised downward. Employers added only 19,000 jobs in May, compared to the initial report of 144,000, and just 14,000 jobs in June. That initial report had showed a gain of 147,000 jobs. Employment in the manufacturing industry was virtually unchanged in July.
• The U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3 percent from May 2025 to June 2025 and 2.6 percent from June 2024 to June 2025. The annual rate of growth was up from 2.4 percent growth between May 2024 and May 2025. Read the full report at this link.
• The number of people who claimed U.S. unemployment benefits for the first time ever was 218,000 during the week that ended July 26. That number was up by 1,000 from the week before. Averaged over the past four weeks, the number of first-time claims was 221,000, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week. In all, nearly 1.945 million people claimed federal unemployment benefits during the week that ended July 19. That figure was the same as the week before.
• According to the Conference Board, U.S. consumer confidence improved for the second consecutive month in July. The board’s index rose to 97.2 from 95.2 the previous month. The expectations index increased to 74.4 while the present situation index fell to 131.5, reflecting concerns about job availability. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment reading also rose slightly in July.