Mixed Results In September For North American Steel Shipments

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Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• According to MSCI’s MAR, U.S. steel shipments fell 3.2 percent from September 2024 to September 2025, marking another month of year-over-year decline. Aluminum shipments posted a modest gain of 1.4 percent. Canadian steel shipments rose slightly by 0.4 percent year-over-year, bucking recent trends, but aluminum shipments contracted by 5.3 percent. These mixed figures suggest the steel market could be stabilizing in Canada.
• Real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada contracted 0.3 percent in August, offsetting most of July’s 0.3 percent expansion. According to Statistics Canada, goods-producing industries declined 0.6 percent in August, marking the fifth contraction in that part of the economy since the beginning of the year. Read the full report at this link.
• According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, factory activity in Texas continued to expand in October. The bank’s production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was unchanged at +5.2 while other measures of activity moved down or held steady. For example, the new orders index was little changed at -1.7, the capacity utilization reading fell to -1.1 from 3.9, and the shipments index held relative steady at +5.8. Read the full report at this link. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s manufacturing survey rose to -4 in October from -17 in September. All three of its component indexes increased: the shipments reading rose to +4 from -20 in September, new orders jumped to -6 from -15, and the employment index increased to -10 from -15. The local business conditions index also rose to -1 in October. Read the full report at this link.
• The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence fell one point in October to 94.6. The present situation index, which is based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, improved by 1.8 points to 129.3. The reading for future expectations, which reflect consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, declined by 2.9 points to 71.5, however. The expectations has been below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead since February 2025.