IMF Increases Worldwide Growth Estimates For 2026

Connecting the Dots monitors all major economic announcements in the United States and Canada, but the Metals Service Center Institute also offers industrial metals industry-specific data products that provide much deeper analysis and insight. Visit MSCI’s website and click on industry data to learn more about our Metals Activity Report (MAR), Momentum Monitors, and Macroeconomic Current.

Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has increased its 2026 global growth forecast. The forecast now calls for global gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 3.3 percent this year, up ‌0.2 percentage point from the estimate the IMF released last October. The IMF estimated U.S. growth for 2026 will be ‍2.4 percent, up 0.3 percentage points from the October estimate, due in part to increased investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, data centers, AI chips, and power. Canada’s economy is projected to experience GDP growth between 1.1 percent to 1.6 percent this year.
• The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s manufacturing index, at zero, held steady between December 2025 and January 2026. Nondurable manufacturing activity declined, the bank said, while durable manufacturing activity grew slightly due to improvements in the nonmetallic mineral and metal manufacturing sectors. The volume of new orders and employment indexes, also at zero, were unchanged from December, while production grew slightly and capital expenditures decreased. Read the full report at this link.
• During the week that ended Jan. 17, 200,000 Americans filed for federal unemployment benefits for the first time, a 1,000 increase from the previous week’s level. The four-week moving average of first-time claims was 201,500, down 3,750 from the previous week. The four-week moving average is now at its lowest level since mid-January 2024. The number of people who continued to receive jobless benefits rose to 1.849 million for the week that ended Jan. 10, 2026. That number was down by 26,000 from the week before. Additionally, the four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped to 1,870,750, a decrease of 16,250 from the week before.
• In other economic news: U.S. construction spending increased 0.5 percent between September 2025 and October 2025, but was down one percent from October 2024 to October 2025; the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index jumped to 56.4 from 52.9 in December, reaching the highest level since August 2025; and retail sales in Canada fell 0.5 percent in December.