Metals Activity Report Shows Mixed Picture For North American Shipments

Connecting the Dots monitors all major economic announcements in the United States and Canada, but the Metals Service Center Institute (MSCI) also offers industrial metals industry-specific data products that provide much deeper analysis and insight. Visit MSCI’s website and click on industry data to learn more about our Metals Activity Report (MAR), Momentum Monitors, and Macroeconomic Current.

Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• According to MSCI’s latest MAR, U.S. aluminum shipments were up sharply between October 2023 and October 2024, but U.S. steel shipments were flat. The slide in Canadian service center activity persisted for steel and aluminum during the same period. Specifically, U.S. service center steel shipments fell 0.8 percent year-over-year while product shipments increased 12.6 percent. Canadian service center steel shipments declined 9.2 percent between October 2023 and October 2024 while shipments of aluminum products fell 13.4 percent.
• World crude steel production for the 71 countries reporting to the World Steel Association was 151.2 million metric tons in October 2024, a 0.4 percent increase from October 2023. Production in Europe fell 6.4 percent, but rose in Asia by 0.9 percent. Production also was down in North America where it fell 3.6 percent year-over-year.
• The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.4 percent in October following a 0.3 percent decrease in September. Weak new orders from manufacturers were the most significant negative contributor to the report, but manufacturing hours worked also fell significantly. Unemployment claims also increased while building permits declined, partly due to hurricanes in the Southeast.
• U.S. manufacturers and trade inventories increased 0.1 percent from August 2024 to September 2024 and 2.2 between September 2023 and September 2024. Sales were up 0.3 percent in September and the inventory-to-sales ratios increased from 1.35 to 1.38. Read the full report at this link.
• Regional manufacturing readings have been mixed so far during the month of November. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s manufacturing index rose 43 points to +31.2 to hit its highest level in nearly three years. New orders and shipments rose substantially while labor market conditions pointed to steady employment levels and a longer average workweek. Read the full report at this link. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, manufacturing activity in its region softened in November. The bank’s reading for current general business activity turned negative and the indexes for new orders and shipments also fell, even though they remained in positive territory. The employment index rose, however, suggesting an increase in employment overall, and firm leaders did say they continue to expect growth over the next six months. Read the full report at this link. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s composite index increased, meanwhile, rising to -2 in November from -4 in October. Nondurable goods manufacturing declined modestly, driven by paper and petroleum products. Durable goods activity was flat, with increases in electrical and transportation and decreases in wood and primary metal manufacturing. Overall production and new orders fell, but employment stayed steady at +1. Read the full report at this link.
• Investment in building construction in Canada expanded 2.1 percent from August 2024 to September 2024 and 6.7 percent between September 2023 and September 2024. For the month, investment in the residential sector increased 2.9 percent to $15.2 billion while the non-residential sector edged up 0.3 percent to $6.4 billion.
• Key U.S. housing market indicators released last week were mixed. The number of new homes under construction fell 3.1 percent from September 2024 and October 2024 and four percent between October 2023 and October 2024. Read that report at this link. Existing home sales in the United States were up by 3.4 percent from September to October and 2.9 percent year-over-year. Read that report at this link.
• The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits for the first time stood at 213,000 during the week that ended Nov. 16, a figure that was down by 6,000 from the week before. Averaged over the past four weeks, first-time claims fell to 217,750. In all, nearly 1.908 million people claimed jobless benefits during the week that ended Nov. 9, a number that was up by 36,000 from the week before and is now at its highest level since mid-November 2021.
• In other economic news: the Canadian Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent between September 2024 and October 2024 and two percent between October 2023 and October 2024; Canadian retail sales improved 0.4 percent from August 2024 to September 2024; and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose from 70.5 in October to 71.8 in November.