MSCI’s March Metals Activity Report Shows Mixed Shipment Trends

Connecting the Dots monitors all major economic announcements in the United States and Canada, but the Metals Service Center Institute also offers industrial metals industry-specific data products that provide much deeper analysis and insight. Visit MSCI’s website and click on industry data to learn more about our Metals Activity Report (MAR), Momentum Monitors, and Macroeconomic Current.

Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• MSCI’s MAR March 2026 shows mixed shipment trends across North American service centers. U.S. steel shipments declined 6.5 percent between March 2025 and March 2026 while aluminum shipments increased 5.6 percent. In Canada, steel shipments were up 0.8 percent compared to March 2025, and aluminum shipments also increased, rising 4.7 percent.
• U.S. Industrial production fell 0.5 percent in March, but still grew at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the first quarter of 2026. The Federal Reserve report showed manufacturing output fell 0.1 percent in March, but expanded at a 3.0 percent rate in the first quarter. The indexes for mining and for utilities moved down 1.2 and 2.3 percent, respectively. At 101.8 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production was 0.7 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization receded to 75.7 percent, a rate that is 3.7 percentage points below its long-run average.
• Canadian manufacturing sales rebounded in February 2026, improving 3.6 percent from a month earlier to $71.2 billion. While sales increased in 12 of 21 subsectors, including transportation equipment, machinery, and primary metals, total sales remained 1.7 percent lower than one year earlier. Inventory levels rose 0.6 percent, meanwhile.
• The combined value of U.S. distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments rose 1.7 percent from January 2026 to February 2026 and 5.5 percent from February 2025 to February 2026. Manufacturers’ and trade inventories were up 0.4 percent for the month and 1.3 percent year-over-year. The total business inventories-to-sales ratio was 1.33 in February 2026, down from 1.39 a year earlier.
• Regional manufacturing readings released last week showed expansion in the sector. Specifically, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s manufacturing index rose to +11 in April from -0.2 in March. Readings for new orders, employment, and shipments all were higher and respondents also expressed optimism about improvement in the months ahead. One slightly negative indicator: manufacturers showed some hesitation about future capital spending plans. The manufacturing sector in the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s region also continued to improve overall. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, but the employment index fell and turned negative. Firms also continued to say they expect growth over the next six months even though most future indicators were lower. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s manufacturing index fell slightly to +10 in April from +11 in March. The month-over-month indexes were all positive except for new orders for exports and the employee count. Most year-over-year indexes were positive except for backlog of orders, employment indexes, and materials inventory. Read the full report at this link.
• The National Federation of Independent Business’s Small Business Optimism Index fell three points in March to 95.8, leaving the reading below its 52-year average of 98.0. The last time the index fell below this historical average was April 2025. The index’s uncertainty reading rose four points from February to 92, well above its historical average of 68. Read the full report at this link.
• During the week that ended April 18, 214,000 U.S. residents filed for federal unemployment benefits for the first time, a number that was up by 6,000 from the previous week. The four-week moving average of first-time claims was 210,750, an increase of 750 from the previous week. The number of people who continued to receive jobless benefits rose to 1.821 million for the week that ended April 11, 2026. That number was up by 12,000 from the week before. The four-week moving average of continuing claims, meanwhile, fell to 1,812,250, a increase of 1,250 from the week before.
• In other economic news: retail sales in Canada increased 0.7 percent in February due to improvements in seven of nine subsectors, including motor vehicle and parts dealers; the U.S. producer price index increased 0.5 percent in from February 2026 to March 2026 and four percent from March 2025 to March 2026; U.S. import prices rose 0.8 percent between February and March and 2.1 percent year-over-year while export prices jumped 1.6 percent for the month and 5.6 percent for the year; and sales of existing homes in the United States fell 3.6 percent between February and March and one percent between March 2025 and March 2026; and the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment for the United States fell to 49.8 in April from 53.3 in March.