MSCI’s Metals Activity Report Showed Mixed Results In October

Connecting the Dots monitors all major economic announcements in the United States and Canada, but the Metals Service Center Institute also offers industrial metals industry-specific data products that provide much deeper analysis and insight. Visit MSCI’s website and click on industry data to learn more about our Metals Activity Report (MAR), Momentum Monitors, and Macroeconomic Current.

Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• According to MSCI’s MAR, U.S. steel shipments fell 2.5 percent from October 2024 to October 2025 while aluminum shipments edged up one percent. Canada showed a similar split. Steel shipments declined 4.8 percent even as aluminum rose four percent. Together, the results point to ongoing steel softness alongside modest, broadening improvement in aluminum demand.
• The U.S. goods and services trade deficit was $59.6 billion in August, down $18.6 billion from July. August exports were $280.8 billion, $0.2 billion more than July exports. August imports were $340.4 billion, $18.4 billion less than July imports. The August decrease in the overall trade deficit reflected an $18.1 billion decline in the goods deficit and a $0.5 billion increase in the services surplus. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit is up $142.5 billion, or 25 percent, from the same period in 2024. Read the full report.
• New orders for U.S. manufactured goods increased 1.4 percent in August while shipments fell 0.1 percent. Unfilled orders rose 0.6 percent and the unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio increased from 6.86 in July to 6.93 in August. Inventories were virtually unchanged, meanwhile, and the inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.56, unchanged from July.
• Regional manufacturing indices have been mixed so far this month. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s manufacturing index rose eight points to +18.7 in November, its fourth positive reading in the last five months. New orders and shipments increased significantly while inventories expanded. Labor market indicators also improved, pointing to a small increase in employment and a longer average workweek. Read the full report. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s manufacturing reading increased 11 points to -1.7 in November. Despite the overall improvement, the new orders and shipments indexes both declined and turned negative, however, and the new orders index fell 27 points to -8.6, its lowest reading since April 2025. The shipments index also declined, falling 15 points to -8.7, its first negative reading since May. Read the full report. Finally, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s manufacturing index rose to +6 in October due to the fact that both durable and nondurable manufacturing activity improve. Growth in the durable manufacturing sector was driven by machinery and furniture manufacturing. Read that report at this link.
• U.S. employers created 119,000 new jobs in September, but employment in the manufacturing sector fell by 6,000. Job gains for both July and August were revised downward and the unemployment and labor force participation rates both rose by 0.1 percent, to 4.4 percent and 62.4 percent, respectively. Read the full report. In related news: during the week that ended Nov. 15, 220,000 Americans filed for federal unemployment benefits for the first time, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s level. The four-week moving average of first-time claims was 224,250, a decline of 3,000 from the previous week. The number of people who continued to receive jobless benefits rose to 1.974 million for the week that ended Nov. 8. That number was up by 28,000 from the week before. Additionally, the four-week moving average of continuing claims rose to more than 1.96 million and is now at its highest level since November 2021.
• Canadian retail sales fell 0.7 percent to $69.8 billion between August 2025 and September 2025. Sales were down in six of nine subsectors, including motor vehicle and parts dealers. Retail sales were up 0.2 percent in the third quarter, however.
• In other economic news: U.S. construction spending increased 0.2 percent between July 2025 and August 2025, but fell 1.6 percent between August 2024 and August 2025; Canada’s producer price index increased 1.5 percent from September 2025 to October 2025 and six percent from October 2024 to October 2025; the number of existing homes sold in the United States increased 1.2 percent between September and October and 1.7 percent year-over-year; and the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment fell to 51 in November from 53.6 in October.