U.S. Economic Growth Slows And Canadian Job Growth Is Tepid

Connecting the Dots monitors all major economic announcements in the United States and Canada, but the Metals Service Center Institute also offers industrial metals industry-specific data products that provide much deeper analysis and insight. Visit MSCI’s website and click on industry data to learn more about our Metals Activity Report (MAR), Momentum Monitors, and Macroeconomic Current.

Meanwhile, here are the major economic headlines from the last week:

• U.S. economic growth slowed to an annualized rate of just 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from an earlier estimate of 0.7 percent, the U.S. Department of Commerce revealed last week. The agency attributed the slowdown to the extended federal government shutdown late last year. The reading represented a major downturn from robust 4.4 percent and 3.8 percent growth rates from the previous two quarters. Consumer spending grew 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 3.5 percent in the previous quarter, while federal spending and investment fell substantially due to the shutdown.
• New orders for U.S. manufactured goods in February were virtually unchanged between January 2026 and February 2026, but shipments were up 1.4 percent for the month. Unfilled orders rose 0.1 percent and the unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.92, down from 6.99 in January. Inventories also were up 0.1 percent while the inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.53, down from 1.55 in January.
• S. wholesale sales jumped 2.7 percent from January 2026 to February 2026 and 8.8 percent from February 2025 to February 2026. The year-over-year increase was driven by a 4.1 percent rise in durable goods sales and a 1.4 percent improvement in nondurable goods sales. Inventories expanded 0.8 percent for the month and 1.8 percent annually while the inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.22 from 1.25 during the previous month and 1.31 a year earlier. Read the full report at this link.
• The Canadian economy added 14,100 jobs in March and the country’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.7 percent. The employment increase was the first monthly jump of 2026. (The economy lost a total of 109,000 jobs in the first two months of the year.) Read the full report at this link.
• During the week that ended April 4, 219,000 U.S. residents filed for federal unemployment benefits for the first time, a number that was up by 16,000 from the previous week. The four-week moving average of first-time claims was 209,500, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week. The number of people who continued to receive jobless benefits rose to 1.794 million for the week that ended March 28, 2026. That number was down by 38,000 from the week before. The four-week moving average of continuing claims, meanwhile, fell to 1,823,250, a drop of 13,250 from the week before.
• The U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index fell to 67.0 in the first quarter of 2026, revealing rising uncertainty among the nation’s entrepreneurs about the U.S. economy and its future. Specifically, significantly fewer small business leaders said they plan to expand payrolls or make new investments in the year ahead. Only 37 percent expect to raise investment, down from 44 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, and only 30 percent expect to increase staff, a 12-point drop from the end of last year. Just over three fifths of small business leaders, 61 percent, expect their revenue to increase. That number was down from 65 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 and from 69 percent one year ago.
• In other economic news: real average hourly earnings in the United States fell 0.6 percent from February 2026 to March 2026, but were up 0.3 percent from March 2025 to March 2026; due mostly to a spike in energy prices, the U.S. consumer price index jumped 0.9 percent from February to March and 3.3 percent year-over-year; and the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, increased 0.5 percent in February. Click here to read that full report.